World Economic Outlook Update, International Monetary Fund, Ιανουάριος 2015.
Cross Currents
Global growth will receive a boost from lower oil prices, which reflect to an important extent higher supply. But this boost is projected to be more than offset by negative factors, including investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations about medium-term growth continues in many advanced and emerging market economies.
Global growth in 2015–16 is projected at 3.5 and 3.7 percent, downward revisions of 0.3 percent relative to the October 2014 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The revisions reflect a reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised.
The distribution of risks to global growth is more balanced than in October. The main upside risk is a greater boost from lower oil prices, although there is uncertainty about the persistence of the oil supply shock. Downside risks relate to shifts in sentiment and volatility in global financial markets, especially in emerging market economies, where lower oil prices have introduced external and balance sheet vulnerabilities in oil exporters. Stagnation and low inflation are still concerns in the euro area and in Japan.
Four key developments have shaped the global outlook since the release of the October 2014 WEO.
First, oil prices in U.S. dollars have declined by about 55 percent since September. The decline is partly due to unexpected demand weakness in some major economies, in particular, emerging market economies—also reflected in declines in industrial metal prices. But the much larger decline in oil prices suggests an important contribution of oil supply factors, including the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to maintain current production levels despite the steady rise in production from non-OPEC producers, especially the United States. Oil futures prices point to a partial recovery in oil prices in coming years, consistent with the expected negative impact of lower oil prices on investment and future capacity growth in the oil sector.
Second, while global growth increased broadly as expected to 3¾ percent in the third quarter of 2014, up from 3¼ percent in the second quarter, this masked marked growth divergences among major economies. Specifically, the recovery in the United States was stronger than expected, while economic performance in all other major economies—most notably Japan—fell short of expectations. The weaker-than-expected growth in these economies is largely seen as reflecting ongoing, protracted adjustment to diminished expectations regarding medium-term growth prospects, as noted in recent issues of the WEO.
Third, with more marked growth divergence across major economies, the U.S. dollar has appreciated some 6 percent in real effective terms relative to the values used in the October 2014 WEO. In contrast, the euro and the yen have depreciated by about 2 percent and 8 percent, respectively, and many emerging market currencies have weakened, particularly those of commodity exporters.
Fourth, interest rates and risk spreads have risen in many emerging market economies, notably commodity exporters, and risk spreads on high-yield bonds and other products exposed to energy prices have also widened. Long-term government bond yields have declined further in major advanced economies, reflecting safe haven effects and weaker activity in some, while global equity indices in national currency have remained broadly unchanged since October.