Bell, B., Bindler, A. & Machin, S. (2015) “Crime scars: Recessions and the making of career criminals“, VoxEU Organisation, 04 Μαρτίου.
Recessions can lead to an increase in youth unemployment, which could later negatively affect labour market outcomes. This column explores the effect of recessions on criminal activity. The findings indicate a substantial effect on initiating and forming youth careers. There is initially strong and eventually long-lasting detrimental effect of entering the labour market during a recession for individuals at the threshold of criminal activity. These effects are economically substantial and potentially more disturbing than short-run effects.
Recessions typically lead to an increase in youth unemployment rates, leaving young people to face more difficulties in finding jobs. Concerns about long-term impacts on the youth arise when youth unemployment rates are very high. One prominent example is the current policy debate about the lost generation in the context of the Great Recession. We know, for instance, that unemployment at young ages can have persistent negative effects on future wages (e.g. Oreopoulos et al. 2012) and career progression (e.g. Oyer 2008). In recent research (Bell et al. 2015), we show that recessions have a more disturbing and substantial impact on initiating and forming criminal careers:
Young people who leave school during recessions are significantly more likely to become involved in crime than those who leave school while labour markets are more buoyant.
Why do recessions at labour market entry matter for crime?
So, why is it that youth who graduate during recessions are more likely to engage in crime? Those who leave school during a recession, when youth unemployment rates are particularly high, struggle to find a job but do not yet have financial insurance. Hence, following the notion from Gary Becker’s seminal work on criminal choices (Becker 1968), low expectations on returns to legal activity may lead to initial involvement in crime and subsequently to a first encounter with the criminal justice system. Knock-on effects can then lead to criminal careers for the young. On the one hand, those who initially get involved in criminal activity learn the ‘criminal know-how’ (Mocan et al. 2005). On the other hand, those who have criminal records early on in their career may reduce their job opportunities and expected returns in the legal labour market (see, for example, Baert and Verhofstadt 2015).
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- Niepelt, D. (2015) “Reserves for everyone – towards a new monetary regime?“, VoxEU Organisation, 21 Ιανουαρίου.
- Mitchell, B. (2014) “The loaded language of austerity – but all the sinners are saints!“, Bill Mitchell Blog, 27 Νοεμβρίου.
- Dedieu, J. P. (2014) “Greece, a front line for state-sponsored racism in Europe“, AlJazeera America, 29 Σεπτεμβρίου.