D’Agostino, Antonello, Modugno, Michele, Osbat, Chiara, (2016), “A global trade model for the euro area”, European Central Bank, 9 Δεκεμβρίου
We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction between macroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables are necessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explained by the high correlation between trade and macroeconomic variables, with the latter being released in a more timely manner. Second, the model tracks well the dynamics of trade variables conditional on the path of macroeconomic variables during the great recession; this result makes our model a reliable tool for scenario analysis.
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