Low risk as a predictor of financial crises

Jon Danielsson, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer, (2018), “Low risk as a predictor of financial crises”, VoxEU, 26 Μαρτίου

Reliable indicators of future financial crises are important for policymakers and practitioners. While most indicators consider an observation of high volatility as a warning signal, this column argues that such an alarm comes too late, arriving only once a crisis is already under way. A better warning is provided by low volatility, which is a reliable indication of an increased likelihood of a future crisis.

Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις

• Jihad Dagher,(2018),  «Regulatory cycles: Revisiting the political economy of financial crises», Vox.eu, 22 Μαρτίου
• Blanchard, Olivier, (2016), «Slow Growth Is a Fact of Life in the Post-Crisis World», Peterson Institute for International Economics, 13 Απριλίου