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Resolving Europe’s NPL burden: challenges and benefits

Constancio, Vitor, (2017), “Resolving Europe’s NPL burden: challenges and benefits”, Bruegel, 3 February Keynote speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, at Bruegel event: “Tackling Europe’s non-performing loans crisis: restructuring debt, reviving growth” Relevant Posts Anastasiou, Dimitrios , Louri, Helen, Tsionas, Mike, (2017), “Non-Performing Loans In The Euro Area: Are Core-Periphery Banking Markets Fragmented?”, Bank Of Greece, December 2016 European Central Bank, (2016), “Addressing market failures in the resolution of nonperforming …Read More

Reducing the uncertainty around exchange rate forecasts: A new model

Marcellino, Massimiliano, Abbate, Angela, (2017), “Reducing the ucnertainty around exchange rate forecasts: A new model”, VoxEu, 4 February Exchange rates are important contributors to business cycle fluctuations in open economies. Forecasting exchange rates is not an easy task, however, perhaps due to the instability of their relationship with economic drivers. This column introduces a model that also allows for changing volatility when forecasting exchange rates. Modelling time variation in the cross-rate relationships, …Read More

Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area

Eyraud, Luc, Poghosyan, Tigran, Gaspar, Vitor, (2017), “Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area”, IMF Working Paper No. 17/18, January 2017 This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999–2015. We look for, but do not find, conclusive evidence of bias in procedures …Read More

Will better insolvency standards help Europe’s debt deleveraging?

Lehmann, Alexander, (2017), “Will better insolvency standards help Europe’s debt deleveraging?”, Bruegel, 23 January Insolvency regimes in the euro area are on the whole costly, lengthy, and recover little value. A new directive proposed by the Commission sensibly aims to strengthen preventive restructuring and to give once-failed entrepreneurs a second chance. But to assist banks in their NPL workout judicial capacity will need to be built up, and regimes better …Read More

European Fiscal Union: Economic rationale and design challenges

Thirion, Gilles, (2017), “European Fiscal Union: Economic rationale and design challenges”, CEPS, No. 2017-01, January 2017 Proposals for different types of elements of a fiscal union have flourished in recent years, both from academic and policy circles. Since a fiscal union could take a constellation of various different forms, this paper first provides an analytical framework pinpointing the five key elements of a fiscal union. It takes stock of the …Read More

Is the Deflation Cycle Over?

Reinhart, Carmen, (2017), “Is the Deflation Cycle Over?”, Project Syndicate, 31 January Until the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, deflation had all but disappeared as a concern for policymakers and investors in the advanced economies, apart from Japan, which has been subject to persistent downward pressure on prices for nearly a generation. And now deflationary fears are on the wane again. By the mid-1960s, the advanced economies began an era …Read More

The Inclusive Growth and Development Report 2017

World Economic Forum, (2017), “The Inclusive Growth and Development Report 2017”, January Over the past several years, a worldwide consensus has emerged on the need for a more socially-inclusive approach to generating economic growth. However, inclusive growth and development remain primarily an aspiration. No systemic framework has emerged to guide policy and practice. Building on a beta version of a policy framework released in 2015, this Report provides a practical guide for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to build …Read More

Why is it so hard to reach the EU’s ‘poverty’ target?

Darvas, Zsolt, (2017), “Why is it so hard to reach the EU’s ‘poverty’ target?”, Bruegel, 19 January The ‘poverty’ target set by the European Commission aims to lift “over 20 million people out of poverty” between 2008 and 2020 in the EU27. Progress to date against this target has been disappointing. Why is it so hard to reach the Europe 2020 ‘poverty’ target? What does the poverty indicator actually measure? Relevant …Read More

Europe’s Growth Challenge

  Åslund, Andres, Djankov, Simeon, (2017), “Europe’s Growth Challenge”, Oxford University Press, February In the wake of the Great Recession, Europe’s economy has stagnated to a considerable degree-greater even than that of the United States. Forecasts suggest an abysmal annual growth rate of about one percent over the next five years, and it now appears that Europe’s enviable structural features, that is, their superior social safety net, leading educational facilities, …Read More

The Global Wealth Report 2016

Credit Suisse, (2016), “The Global Wealth Report 2016”, Research Institute, November The seventh edition of the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Wealth Report confirms a course of the weak global wealth growth. In the past 12 months, global wealth has risen by 3.5 trillion dollars to 256 trillion dollars, which represents an increase of 1.4 percent. However, wealth creation has merely kept pace with population growth. As a result, in 2016, …Read More