Ana Palacio, (2019), “The EU’s Four Challenges”, Project Syndicate, 22 May Whatever the next European Parliament’s composition, the imperative will be the same: EU institutions must trade ambition for humility, focusing their attention not on their own power or status, but rather on upgrading and fortifying the project for which they claim to stand. If they fail, the road ahead will only become more perilous. Relevant Posts Gros, Daniel (2019), …Read More
Portugal’s lonely populists
Paul Ames, (2019), “Portugal’s lonely populists”, Politico, 21 May The populist wind blowing across Europe seems to have run out of puff in western Portugal. A new radical-right party pledging to shake up Portuguese politics went campaigning in the streets of this blue-collar city late last week. By the time the party leader arrived, just 14 people had turned up. Relevant Posts Karl Aiginger, (2019), «Populism: Roots, consequences, and counter …Read More
A heterogenous response to unconventional monetary policy
Anne-Laure Delatte, Pranav Garg and Jean Imbs, (2019), “A heterogenous response to unconventional monetary policy”, VoxEU, 21 May The ECB’s unconventional monetary policy package implemented in February 2012 changed collateral requirements. This column examines the effects in the French credit market, using data on corporate loans. Credit indeed increased after the liquidity injection, exclusively driven by supply. There was also strategic risk-taking by a group of banks, an unintentional implication …Read More
The latest European growth-rate estimates
Konstantinos Efstathiou, (2019), “The latest European growth-rate estimates”, Bruegel, 20 May The quarterly growth rate of the euro area in Q1 2018 was 0.4% (1.5% annualized), considerably higher than the low growth rates of the previous two quarters. This blog reviews the reaction to the release of these numbers and the discussion they have triggered about the euro area’s economic challenges. Relevant Posts European Commission (2019), «European Economic Forecast – …Read More
Annual inflation up to 1.7% in the euro area
Eurostat/Annual inflation up to 1.7% in the euro area/17 May 2019 The euro area annual inflation rate was 1.7% in April 2019, up from 1.4% in March 2019. A year earlier, the rate was 1.2%. European Union annual inflation was 1.9% in April 2019, up from 1.6% in March 2019. A year earlier, the rate was 1.5%. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. …Read More
What is in store for the EU’s trade relationship with the US ?
Uri Dadush, (2019), “What is in store for the EU’s trade relationship with the US ?”, Bruegel, 16 May If faced with a resurgent President Trump after the next US election, the EU will have some difficult decisions to make as it is compelled to enter a one-sided negotiation. Failure to strike a deal will imperil the world’s largest trade relationship and contribute to the progressive unravelling of the rules …Read More
The ECB Song Contest?
Stefan Gerlach, (2019), “The ECB Song Contest?”, Project Syndicate, 13 May Choosing the next president of the European Central Bank should not be like picking the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest. Instead, Europe should ask which criteria candidates must satisfy to be an effective ECB president, and then search for the person who best meets them. Relevant Posts Craig Stirling, (2019), «Draghi Makes Sure Stimulus Lives On Even After …Read More
Germany’s even larger than expected fiscal surpluses: Is there a link with the constitutional debt brake?
Catarina Midoes and Guntram B. Wolff, (2019), “Germany’s even larger than expected fiscal surpluses: Is there a link with the constitutional debt brake?”, Bruegel, 13 May Germany is having a political debate on the adjustment of its budgetary plans due to revised forecasts, and an academic debate on the debt brake. Yet, since 2011, general government revenues and surpluses have been systematically and significantly higher than forecast. The German surplus …Read More
The Return of Fiscal Policy
Barry Eichengreen, (2019), “The Return of Fiscal Policy”, Project Syndicate, 13 May Public debt is not a free lunch in an economy close to full employment. But when investment demand tends to fall short of saving, as it does when monetary policymakers are unable to push inflation higher to reduce real interest rates, there is a risk of chronic underemployment – and a stronger argument for deficit spending. Relevant Posts …Read More
GDP up by 0.4% and employment up by 0.3% in the euro area
Eurostat/GDP up by 0.4% and employment up by 0.3% in the euro area/15 May 2019 Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.4% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.5% in the EU28 during the first quarter of 2019, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the fourth quarter of 2018, GDP had grown by 0.2% in …Read More