De Groen, Willem Pieter, Gros, Daniel, (2015), “Addressing the immediate needs of the Greek banks”, CEPS Commentary, 31 July. Based on a detailed calculation of the recapitalisation requirements of the Greek banks, we find that the sector needs an infusion of capital, but that the level largely depends on the stringency of the capital requirements applied. An expedient quick fix to comply with the minimum capital requirements could be achieved by a bail-in of existing creditors under …Read More
Euro Area Policies Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation With Member Countries
International Monetary Fund, (2015), “Euro Area Policies Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation With Member Countries”, IMF Country Report No. 15/204 , July. KEY ISSUES Context. Real output has expanded for four consecutive quarters, and financial market sentiment has improved markedly. But the recovery is weak and uneven. Inflation has been too low for too long, financial markets are still fragmented, and structural gaps persist: these hinder rebalancing and substantial reductions …Read More
How could the third Greek bailout change without the IMF?
Ruparel, Raoul, (2015), “How could the third Greek bailout change without the IMF?”, Open Europe blog, 31 July. The IMF has pulled further back from joining the third Greek bailout. How much difference might this make to the funding and nature of the bailout? Could it jeopardise it entirely? Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel investigates. Relevant Posts Galbraith, James, (2015), “The IMF’s “Tough Choices” on Greece”, Project Syndicate, 16 June El-Erian, …Read More
Reform momentum and its impact on Greek growth
Terzi, Alessio, (2015), “Reform momentum and its impact on Greek growth”, Bruegel Institute, 29 July. Greece has an imperfect track-record of structural reform implementation. However, the poor growth outcome of the Greek programmes is also a consequence of the timing and composition of reforms, which were not optimally geared towards a speedy transition to a new growth model based on the private sector. While the main responsibility for this lies …Read More
The Greek bailout drama: Is this time different?
Pelagidis, Theodore, (2015), “The Greek bailout drama: Is this time different?”, Brookings Institute, 27 July Economists and analysts around the world, believing a Grexit almost inevitable just a month ago, now insist that the proposed deal between the Greek government and the creditors is only band aid for Greece’s economy and so, it will not work. Well, of course, after five years of depression, having the troika back in Athens to …Read More
Greece Isn’t a Morality Tale
Buchanan, Mark, (2015), “Greece Isn’t a Morality Tale”, Bloomberg View, 29 July One of the more troubling elements of the recent drama over Greece’s debt was the urge by many to see a deficiency of national character, rather than euro-zone economics, as the problem. Right-leaning opinion, not only in Germany but around the world, put the trouble down to Greek corruption and, worse, laziness: The bad people of Greece retire too …Read More
The Lethal Deferral of Greek Debt Restructuring
Varoufakis, Yanis, (2015), “The Lethal Deferral of Greek Debt Restructuring”, Project Syndicate, 28 July The point of restructuring debt is to reduce the volume of new loans needed to salvage an insolvent entity. Creditors offer debt relief to get more value back and to extend as little new finance to the insolvent entity as possible. Remarkably, Greece’s creditors seem unable to appreciate this sound financial principle. Where Greek debt is …Read More
Escaping the Greek Debt Trap
Eichengreen, Barry, Evans, Gary, Αllen, Peter, (2015), “Escaping the Greek Debt Trap”, Βloomberg View, 27 July Greece’s debt is unsustainable. The International Monetary Fund has said so, and it’s hard to find anyone who disagrees. The Greek government sees structural reform without debt reduction as politically and economically toxic. The main governing party, Syriza, has made debt reduction a central plank of its electoral platform and will find it hard to hold on …Read More
Eurozone rebalancing toward broadbased recovery/EY Eurozone Forecast
The immediate economic outlook for Greece continues to be highly uncertain. Although the Syriza-led Government agreed an extension to the existing adjustment program in February, the Greek government and its international creditors have so far failed to agree a reform agenda that would secure the release of much-needed financing. Eurozone rebalancing toward broadbased recovery/EY Eurozone Forecast/June 2015 Relevant Posts Van Hulten, Michiel, (2015), “Why debt relief could save Greece but would destroy the Eurozone”, LSE blog, …Read More
Why Greeks voted the way they did in the bailout referendum
Jurado, Ignacio, Konstantinidis, Nikitas, Walter, Stefanie, (2015), “Why Greeks voted the way they did in the bailout referendum”, LSE blog, 20 July The recent ‘Greferendum’ on a draft bailout proposal submitted by the European Commission highlights the confounding effects of economic and political interdependence on democratic politics. Whereas the British electorate will be given up to two years in order to deliberate and decide over British membershipin the EU (having already opted out …Read More