Maria Demertzis, (2019), “Economic priorities for new EU leadership”, Bruegel, 10 September Europe is no longer in crisis mode. However, it remains vulnerable; it is unprepared and it is procrastinating. Following European elections this May, new leaders are about to take their positions at the main European institutions for the next 5 years. They have the power in their hands to take action. But more importantly, they have the power …Read More

Yoko Takeo and Piotr Skolimowksi, (2019), “ECB Cuts Rates, Revives QE to Lift Growth as Draghi Era Ends”, Bloomberg, 12 September The European Central Bank cut interest rates further below zero and revived bond purchases after President Mario Draghi overcame critics of his stimulus policies to make a final run at reflating the euro-area economy. Relevant Posts Daniel Gros, (2019), «The ECB’s Deflation Obsession», Project Syndicate, 6 September Summers, Lawrence …Read More

Christoph Boehm, (2019), “Government investment and fiscal stimulus”, VoxEU, 7 September Fiscal stimulus packages typically feature large investment in infrastructure. The column argues that the fiscal multiplier associated with government investment during the Great Recession was near zero. Meanwhile, the government consumption multiplier was around 0.8. Estimates of the multiplier for total government purchases do not distinguish these two effects, which may affect their validity. Relevant Posts Giugliano, Ferdinando, (2019), …Read More

Charles Collyns and Prakash Loungani, (2019), “How the IMF can ‘raise its game’ on monetary policy advice”, VoxEU, 9 September Unconventional monetary policies were used extensively to deal with the Global Crisis. This column presents the results of a study by the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office which assessed the value provided by the IMF in its advice on unconventional monetary policies over the past decade. While in many ways the …Read More

Daniel Gros, (2019), “The ECB’s Deflation Obsession”, Project Syndicate, 6 September It is hard to understand why the European Central Bank is currently so anxious to find new ways to make its policy stance even more expansionary. Its hyper-vigilance about falling prices is misplaced, and its ability to increase the rate of inflation is dubious. Relevant Posts Gerlach, Stefan, (2019), “Lagarde’s ECB Checklist”, Project Syndicate.org, July El-Erian, Mohammed, (2019), “Are …Read More

Guntram B. Wolff, (2019) “Why Europe needs a change of mind-set to fend off the risks of recession”, Bruegel, 2 September Recession! This is the new worry in Europe and the US. A simple look at google trends shows that in Germany, France and the US, search interest for recession peaked in the last weeks. In Italy, the peak already occurred end of January. Whether a recession is actually occurring …Read More

Chiara Cavalleri Maria , Eliet Alice , McAdam Peter , Petroulakis Filippos , Soares Ana , Vansteenkiste Isabel , (2019),  “Concentration, market power, and dynamism in the euro area“, August Recent evidence suggests that competitive intensity has been declining in the US. This column aims to contribute to our understanding of these trends in the euro area. It finds that, in contrast to the situation in the US, market power …Read More

European Central Bank, (2019), “Interbank rate uncertainty and bank lending“, Working Paper  No 2311, August This paper investigates the effects of interbank rate uncertainty on lending rates to euro area firms. We introduce a novel measure of interbank rate uncertainty, computed as the cross-sectional dispersion in interbank market rates on overnight unsecured loans. Using proprietary bank-level data, we find that interbank rate uncertainty significantly raises lending rates on loans to …Read More

Summers, Lawrence and Stansbury Anna, (2019), “Whither Central Banking?“, Project Syndicate, August In an environment of secular stagnation in the developed economies, central bankers’ ingenuity in loosening monetary policy is exactly what is not needed. What is needed are admissions of impotence, in order to spur efforts by governments to promote demand through fiscal policies and other means. Relevant Posts El-Erian, Mohammed, (2019), “Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet?“, …Read More

Giugliano, Ferdinando, (2019), “The French Are Finally Doing Better Than the Germans“, Project – Syndicate.org, July After a very tough 2018 for President Emmanuel Macron, France, the second-largest economy in the monetary union, is faring much better than most experts would have assumed. Its economic model – less reliant on exports than Germany – is proving more resilient to the dangers of a U.S.-inspired trade war. At the same time, the …Read More