Buti, Marco, (2019), “Trade shocks, growth, and resilience: Eastern Europe’s adjustment tale“, Vox CEPR Policy, June The EU11 economies are among the most open economies globally. The process of trade integration and the creation of GVCs have also drove a significant inflow of FDI into these countries. This column shows that while integration in the EU and FDI have enhanced their growth potential, these developments have also made them more …Read More
The evolution of the ECB governing council’s decision-making
Claeys, Gregory, (2019),”The evolution of the ECB governing council’s decision-making“, Bruegel.org, June Given the peculiar multi-country nature of the Eurosystem, taking monetary policy decisions by unanimity, or at least by consensus, was considered a priority by the founder members of the governing council of the ECB to ensure that the new central bank would be seen as speaking with one ‘supra-national’ voice. That is why ECB President Duisenberg declared in July …Read More
Who holds Italian government debt? A Primer
Daniel Gros, (2019), “Who holds Italian government debt? A Primer”, CEPS, Policy Insights No 2019-11/June 2019 The debt to GDP ratio of Italy remains at 130% of GDP, the second highest in the euro area. Moreover, under current policy settings it is poised even to increase, rather than fall, over the next few years. This outlook has led the European Commission to start a debt-driven excessive deficit procedure against the …Read More
Financial crises and the dynamics of financial de-liberalisation
Blogs.lse, (2019), “Financial crises and the dynamics of financial de-liberalisation”, June Financial crises play a key role in changing existing policies concerning financial markets and institutions. Orkun Saka, Nauro Campos, Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji and Angelo Martelli provide new evidence for the negative impact of financial crises on the process of financial liberalisation. They also show that such interventions are only temporary and that the liberalisation process restarts quickly after a financial crisis. These results support …Read More
Uncertainty over output gap and structural-balance estimates remains elevated
Darvas, Zsolt, (2019), “Uncertainty over output gap and structural-balance estimates remains elevated“, Bruegel.org, June The EU fiscal framework strongly relies on the structural budget balance indicator, which aims to measure the ‘underlying’ position of the budget. But this indicator is not observed, only estimations can be made. This post shows that estimates of the European Commission, the IMF, the OECD and national governments widely differ from each other and all …Read More
GNI-per-head rankings: The sad stories of Greece and Italy
Papadia, Francesco, (2019),”GNI-per-head rankings: The sad stories of Greece and Italy“, Bruegel.org , June No other country lost as many positions as Greece and Italy in the rankings of European countries by Gross National Income per head, between 1990 and 2017. The tentative conclusion here is that more complex, country-specific stories – beyond the euro, or the specific euro-area fiscal rules – are needed to explain these individual performances. Σχετικές …Read More
How to Build a European Banking Champion
Gilbert, Mark, (2019), “How to Build a European Banking Champion“, Bloomberg Opinion, June Earlier this month, Elisa Martinuzzi suggested that merging Deutsche Bank AG and UBS Group AG would, on paper at least, create a European banking champion. She concluded, though, that the regulatory obstacles to such a deal would probably be insurmountable. But there is a three-way combination that could create a regional lender with the heft to take on …Read More
Euro area job vacancy rate at 2.3%
Eurostat, (2019), “Euro area job vacancy rate at 2.3%” , NewsRelease – EuroIndicators 96 , June The job vacancy rate in the euro area (EA19) was 2.3% in the first quarter of 2019, stable compared with the previous quarter and up from 2.1% in the first quarter of 2018, according to figures published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the EU28, the job vacancy rate was 2.4% …Read More
Annual inflation down to 1.2% in the euro area
Eurostat, (2019), “Annual inflation down to 1.2% in the euro area“, NewsRelease – EuroIndicators 97, June The euro area annual inflation rate was 1.2% in May 2019, down from 1.7% in April 2019. A year earlier, the rate was 2.0%. European Union annual inflation was 1.6% in May 2019, down from 1.9% in April 2019. A year earlier, the rate was 2.0%. The lowest annual rates were registered in Cyprus , …Read More
The case for market-based stress tests
Vickers, John (2019), “The case for market-based stress tests“, VOX CEPR Policy Portal, June The stability of the financial system depends on the capital of banks and other financial institutions. But the measurement of bank capital depends on regulatory accounting methods, which, as events a decade ago showed dramatically, do not always reflect economic realities in a timely fashion. This column argues that market-based measures should play a greater role in …Read More