An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area

Jarociński, Marek, Lenza, Michele, (2016), “An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area”, ECB, Working Paper No 1966, Σεπτέμβριος

Using a small Bayesian dynamic factor model of the euro area we estimate the deviations of output from its trend that are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been much larger than the official estimates. Versions featuring a secular-stagnation-like slowdown in trend growth, and hence a small output gap after 2011, do not adequately capture the inflation developments.

Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις

• Jarocinski, Marek, Lenza, Michele, (2016), “How large is the output gap in the euro area”, European Central Bank, 1 Ιουλίου
• Elena Andreou, Snezana Eminidou, Marios Zachariadis, (2016), “Inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe”, CEPR DP11306,  Ιούνιος