Fatas, A. (2014) “The Price is Wrong”, Antonio Fatas on the Global Economy Blog, 14 Απριλίου. The Euro area inflation came lower than expected in March and this has raised concerns about deflation (or “lowflation” as labelled by the IMF). In today’s Financial Times, Jurgen Stark, a former ECB board member argues that deflation or low inflation is not a problem. One of his arguments is that there are …Read More
Berlin Fears a High Court Ruling Could Threaten the European Union
Lanthemann, M. (2014) “Berlin Fears a High Court Ruling Could Threaten the European Union“, Geopolitical Weekly, Stratfor, 15 Απριλίου. The Greek economy ended its four-year exile from international markets last week with a triumphant 3 billion euro (about $4.1 billion) bond sale. The global financial media trumpeted this somewhat unexpected achievement as a sign that things were finally turning around in the European Union’s most blighted country. Media reports …Read More
A black cloud over the EU?
Sakalis, A. (2014) “A black cloud over the EU?”, Euro Crisis in the Press, LSE, 14 Απριλίου. The newly announced Le Pen-Wilders alliance in the European parliament has re-ignited speculation about the rise of the far-right in Europe. What can we expect from this new EU supergroup? The recent success of the Front National in French local elections, as well as the announcement of a Le Pen-Wilders alliance in …Read More
A success story for the EU and seasonal workers’ rights without reinventing the wheel
Lazarowicsz, A. (2014) “A success story for the EU and seasonal workers’ rights without reinventing the wheel“, European Policy Centre (EPC) Publications, 28 Μαρτίου Despite the economic crisis with resulting high unemployment, EU economies face vacancies across the skill spectrum. At the low end there is a structural need when it comes to seasonal work. The Seasonal Workers Directive was launched at the same time as the Inter-Corporate Transferees …Read More
Taxing, spending, and inequality – what is to be done?
Clements, B., Coady, D., De Mooij, R. & Gupta, S. (2014) “Taxing, spending, and inequality – what is to be done?“, VoxEU Organisations, 15 Απριλίου. The causes and consequences of rising inequality have stirred a lively debate on appropriate policy responses. This column reviews how governments have successfully used fiscal policy to address distributive concerns. It also examines the policy alternatives that countries can pursue in order to reduce …Read More
‘There will be growth in the spring’: How well do economists predict turning points?
Ahir, H. & Loungani, P. (2014) “‘There will be growth in the spring:’ How well do economists predict turning points?“, VoxEU Organisation, 14 Απριλίου. Forecasters have a poor reputation for predicting recessions. This column quantifies their ability to do so, and explores several reasons why both official and private forecasters may fail to call a recession before it happens. Since the onset of the Great Recession, much of the …Read More
Government wages and labour market outcomes
European Commission (2014) “Government wages and labour market outcomes”, European Economy. Occasional Papers, Απρίλιος 2014: Βρυξέλλες. As most European countries are trying to consolidate public finances, whilst also attempting to improve cost competitiveness for external rebalancing and abate unemployment, it is crucial to assess government wage formation, its outcomes and interaction with private sector labour costs. This paper provides an overview of government wage setting regimes, an empirical analysis …Read More
What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?
Kollmann, R., Ratto, M., Roeger, W., In’t Veld, J. & Vogel, L. (2014) “What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?”, European Economy, Economic Papers, Απρίλιος 2014. We estimate a three-country model using 1995-2013 data for Germany, the Rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the Rest of the World (ROW) to analyze the determinants of Germany’s current account surplus after the …Read More
Losing Interest
Eichengreen, B. (2014) “Losing Interest“, Project Syndicate, 11Απριλίου. BERKELEY – Two of the world’s most prominent economic institutions, the International Monetary Fund and Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, recently warned that the global economy may be facing an extended period of low interest rates. Why is that a bad thing, and what can be done about it? Adjusted for inflation, interest rates have been falling for three decades, …Read More
The increasing competiveness of the southern Eurozone
Auer, R. (2014) “The increasing competiveness of the southern Eurozone“, VoxEU Organisation, 11 Απριλίου. Some view the improvements in current accounts for Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain as short-lived – the result of a temporary compression of import demand that is likely to be reversed as the recession eases. This column argues the contrary, based on the fact that their improving trade balances reflect better export performance. This development …Read More