Brunnermeier, Markus K, Langfield, Sam,Pagano, Marco, Reis, Ricardo, Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, Vayanos, Dimitri, (2016), “ESBies: Safety in the tranches”, VoxEU, 20 September The Eurozone lacks a safe asset that is provided by the region as a whole. This column highlights why and how European Safe Bonds, a union-wide safe asset without joint liability, would resolve this problem, and outlines steps to put them into practice. For given sovereign default probabilities, these …Read More
Bank interest rate setting in the euro area during the Great Recession
Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo, Durré, Alain, Mongelli, Francesco Paolo , (2016), “Bank interest rate setting in the euro area during the Great Recession”, ECB Working Paper Series, 16 September This paper sheds light on how recent financial tensions in the euro area were ultimately reflected in bank interest rate setting. We make two new contributions. First, we develop a theoretical model capturing banks financing and the rate setting choices. Banks in the model …Read More
Different lessons For Europe from American financial history–a counterpoint to Mr. Gaspar
Kincaid, G. Russell, (2016), “Different lessons For Europe from American financial history–a counterpoint to Mr. Gaspar”, Journal of European Integration, 2 September Sovereign debt restructuring played a key role in placing the US federal government on a sound financial footing under its new Constitution in 1789. State governments in the US, like national governments in the euro area, do not have bankruptcy protection. US state governments have not defaulted since the …Read More
Introducing the debate: European Union safeguards against member states’ democratic backsliding
Kelemen, R. Daniel, Blauberger, Michael, (2016), “Introducing the debate: European Union safeguards against member states’ democratic backsliding”, Journal of European Public Policy, 9 September Today, the European Union (EU) is confronting a new democratic deficit at the national level. A number of EU member states have experienced an erosion of democracy and the rule of law in recent years, most severely in Hungary and Poland. Drawing on different strands of political science research, …Read More
Budget-related cross-border flows: EU versus US
D’Apice, Pasquale, (2016), “Budget-related cross-border flows: EU versus US”, VoxEU, 13 September There has been renewed interest in economic analysis of the EU budget following the Global Crisis. This column presents new calculations of cross-border flows operated through the EU budget and compares them with those estimated for the US. For each euro paid by an average net (EU member state) contributor, approximately 75 cents return through the EU budget, and …Read More
The six flaws of the Eurozone
Wyplosz, Charles, (2016), “The six flaws of the Eurozone”, Economic Policy, 4 August When it was created, it was reasonable to think that the architecture of the monetary union was not perfect. It was also likely that the imperfections would lead to difficulties, possibly even crises. This article identifies six flaws, most of which had been identified even before the launch of the euro. It starts by pinpointing why the Eurozone, …Read More
The tail that wags the economy: The origin of secular stagnation
Kozlowski, Julian, Veldkamp, Laura, Venkateswaran, Venky, (2016), “The tail that wags the economy: The origin of secular stagnation”, VoxEu, 11 September The Great Recession has had long-lasting effects on credit markets, employment, and output. This column combines a model with macroeconomic data to measure how the recession has changed beliefs about the possibility of future crises. According to the model, the estimated change in sentiment correlates with economic activity. A short-lived financial …Read More
What are the prerequisites for a euro-area fiscal capacity?
Demertzis, Maria, B. Wolff, Guntram, (2016), “What are the prerequisites for a euro-area fiscal capacity?”, Bruegel Policy Contribution Issue n˚14, 9 September A monetary union without fiscal union is generally considered to be incomplete. We consider three steps for increasing the centralisation of fiscal functions, and discuss the prerequisites for moving forward at each one. Above all, fiscal integration is a matter of trust, which is currently at a low …Read More
The ECB’s asset purchase programme: an early assessment
Andrade, Philippe, Breckenfelder, Johannes, De Fiore, Fiorella, Karadi, Peter, Tristani, Oreste, (2016), “The ECB’s asset purchase programme: an early assessment”, ECB Working Paper Series, 9 September This paper analyses the effects of the European Central Bank’s expanded asset purchase programme (APP) on yields and on the macroeconomy, and sheds some light on its transmission channels. It shows, first, that the January 2015 announcement of the programme has significantly and persistently reduced …Read More
Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE
S. Blattner, Tobias. A. S. Joyce, Michael, (2016), “Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE”, ECB Working Paper Series, 9 September This paper examines how shocks to the net supply of government bonds affect the euro area term structure of interest rates and the wider macroeconomy. To measure net debt supply we construct a new free-float measure, which adjusts total government debt of the four largest euro …Read More