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The limitations of policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester

Darvas, Zsolt, Leandro, Álvaro, (2015), “The limitations of policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester”, Bruegel Publications, Issue 19, 12 November. This paper assesses economic policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester. In sections 2 and 3, we make a positive (and not normative) assessment by taking Council recommendations made in the context of the European Semester as given and evaluating their implementation and consistency, without assessing …Read More

Is globalisation reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?

Claeys, Grégory, Wolff, Guntram B., (2015), “Is globalisation reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?”, Bruegel Publlications, Issue 18, 12 November. After soaring in the 1970s and early 1980s, inflation has declined significantly in all advanced countries and is now at very low levels.This movement coincided with the acceleration of globalisation, triggering a recent debate on whether globalisation could be one of the main drivers of the disinflation process, and …Read More

Charting public opinion on the future of the welfare state

Hüttl, Pia,Wolff, Guntram, (2015), “Charting public opinion on the future of the welfare state”, Bruegel Publications, 10 November. As part of the of the Vision Europe Summit, a survey was held between July and August 2015 to gauge public opinion on the welfare state after the crisis. The survey revealed citizens’ general confidence in the welfare state, as well as preferences regarding the welfare state’s future goals and financing. We discuss the …Read More

The Growing Intergenerational Divide in Europe

Hüttl, Pia, Wilson, Karen, Wolff, Guntram, (2015), “The Growing Intergenerational Divide in Europe”, Bruegel Publications, Issue 17, November. During seven years of economic crisis, the intergenerational income and wealth divide has increased in many European Union countries. In the bloc as a whole, young people on average have become significantly poorer, while poverty among pensioners has been reduced (Figure 1). Unemployment among the under-25s has risen notably while older workers (aged 5-64) have been less …Read More

The macroeconomic effects of the Eurozone’s fiscal consolidation

Rannenberg, Ansgar, Schoder, Christian, Strasky, Jan, (2015), “The macroeconomic effects of the Eurozone’s fiscal consolidation”, Voxeu, 11 November. From 2011 to 2013, fiscal policy in the Eurozone turned progressively more restrictive. This column argues that output cost of fiscal consolidation strongly depends on presence and strength of credit constraints. With credit constraints both in the household and the firm sector, fiscal consolidation would be largely responsible for the weak growth performance during 2011-2013. …Read More

Global Financial Stability Report-October 2015

International Monetary Fund, (2015), “Global Financial Stability Report October 2015 – Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets”, World Economic and Financial Surveys, October. During the past six months financial stability has improved in advanced economies, but risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets amid a lower risk appetite and higher market and liquidity risks. In advanced economies, growth is gaining traction, and monetary policy normalization is approaching in …Read More

Short-sighted monetary policy and fear of liftoff

Orphanides, Athanasios, (2015), “Short-sighted monetary policy and fear of liftoff”, Voxeu, 11 November. There is generally consensus among macroeconomists that monetary policy works best when it is systematic. Following the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve Bank of the US shifted from long-term, systematic policy to short-term goals targeting unemployment. This column argues that, while these were appropriate in the aftermath of the downturn, such policy accommodations have been pursued for too long …Read More

External imbalances within the Eurozone: The Dutch disease explanation

Sy, Mouhamadou, (2015), “External imbalances within the Eurozone: The Dutch disease explanation”, Voxeu, 9 November One of the most prominent features of the Eurozone Crisis has been the large current account deficit accumulated by countries at the periphery relative to those at the core (Baldwin and Giavazzi 2015). These imbalances (see Figure 1) are commonly attributed to differences in competitiveness as manifested in persistent differences in the unit labour costs, or …Read More

Has the crisis affected the behavior of the rating agencies?-Panel Evidence from the Eurozone

Boumparis, Periklis, Milas, Costas, Panagiotidis, Theodore, (2015), “Has the crisis affected the behavior of the rating agencies?-Panel Evidence from the Eurozone”, University of Macedonia, Discussion Paper No. 4/2015, November We examine the determinants of credit ratings for the Eurozone countries over the period 2002-2013 within a panel framework that allows for cross-sectional dependence. We find that government debt and the cumulative current account exert a stronger impact on ratings post- 2008 compared to …Read More

Labour Market Regulation, Fiscal Consolidation, and the Success of Current Account Adjustments

Adam, Antonis, Hatzipanayotou, Panos, Moutos, Thomas, (2015), “Labour Market Regulation, Fiscal Consolidation, and the Success of Current Account Adjustments”, AUEB Working Paper Series 15-17, October In this paper we argue that the strictness of labour market regulations can interact with the mode of fiscal consolidation (tax- based versus spending-based fiscal adjustments) to affect whether current account adjustments are successful. Using data from 81 countries, we are able to identify 147 episodes …Read More