Charlie Cooper, (2018), “10 things you need to know about the Brexit deal”, politico.eu, 15 November The 585-page draft agreement between Brussels and London will become the legal basis for Britain’s departure from the European Union — if it is agreed by EU27 leaders, then ratified by the U.K. parliament and the European Parliament. Alongside the Withdrawal Agreement, the U.K. and the EU have also published a non-legally binding outline political …Read More

Tom Mctague, (2018), “Fog of Brexit war can’t hide Brussels’ win”, politico.eu, 15 November After 18 months of fractious negotiations, the U.K. prime minister squeaked her Brexit deal through her divided top team Wednesday and now faces yet another struggle to survive, let alone steer the deal through an angry parliament that must sign off the divorce treaty in the coming weeks. Theresa May’s fate now rests on her ability to …Read More

European Commission, (2018), “Brexit Negotiations: What is in the Withdrawal Agreement”, 14 November The European Commission and the United Kingdom’s negotiators have reached an agreement on the entirety of the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community, as provided for under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. The Withdrawal Agreement establishes the terms …Read More

Editorial Board of Bloomberg, (2018), “May’s Brexit Deal Is Not the Answer”, Bloomberg, 15 November U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May announced Wednesday that she has secured her cabinet’s support for her plan to leave the European Union. The choice now, she said, is her deal, “or leave with no deal, or no Brexit at all.” Put that way, the right choice — the only sane choice — is more obvious than …Read More

Joseph E. Gagnon, (2018), “When the Next Recession Hits: A User’s Guide for Future QE”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 14 November The global financial crisis of a decade ago pushed economies into deep recessions. To prevent these recessions from becoming depressions, several major central banks made large-scale purchases of long-term bonds and other financial assets to ease financial conditions and support spending.[1] These actions, known as quantitative easing (QE), were …Read More

Ferdinando Giugliano, (2018), “The Punk Rock Life Is No Place for the ECB”, Bloomberg Opinion, 15 November The ECB should pay very close attention to how any new data or market moves that come in before its next meeting, on Dec. 13, change the outlook for prices. Even then, it is very hard to see officials reneging on their guidance that they will end quantitative easing in December: The ECB launched …Read More

Ioana A. Duca, Geoff Kenny, Andreas Reuter, (2018), “Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey”, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 2196, November This paper exploits a very large multi-country survey of consumers to investigate empirically the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending. We document that for the Euro Area and almost all of its constituent countries this relationship is generally positive: a higher expected change …Read More