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The Return of Europe’s Debt Crisis

Das, S., (2013), “The Return of Europe’s Debt Crisis”, EconoMonitor, 16 October. Since mid-2012, the European financial crisis has been in remission, with the symptoms of the underlying disease temporarily suppressed. As treatment is discontinued and drugs lose efficacy, there is a high probability of a relapse. Taking the Waters… A combination of austerity programs, debt write-downs, the European Central Bank’s (“ECB”) commitment to “do whatever it takes” to preserve …Read More

Disentagling the Bond-CDS Nexus: A stress test model of the CDS market

Vuillemey, G. and Peltonen, T., (2013), “Disentagling the Bond-CDS Nexus: A stress test model of the CDS market”, European Central Bank, Working Paper No.1599, October. This paper presents a stress test model for the CDS market, with a focus on the interplay between banks’ bond and CDS holdings. The model enables the analysis of credit risk transfer mechanisms, includes features of market and liquidity risk, and allows for contagious propagation …Read More

A ‘Poldermodel’ For The EU?

Van Waarden, F., (2013), “A ‘Poldermodel’ For The EU?”, Social Europe Journal, 16 October. National social policy programs across Europe have their roots in three different traditions of origin. There is the (partially British) liberalist regime, where programs are the outcome of supply and demand on markets; there is the (French) étatist tradition, where programs have been produced and are organized by the state; and there is the (Germanic) corporatist …Read More

Tax policy in (and for) hard times

Kean, M., (2013), “Tax policy in (and for) hard times”, VoxEU, 16 October. Tax policy, like everything else, has been through tough times since the onset of the crisis. First, tax policy was to stimulate the economy (Heady 2011). Now it is to help consolidate the fiscal position – always with considerable urgency and all in the midst of public anger and disquiet. What state has all this left our …Read More

The Periphery Six

Wright, T., (2013), “The Periphery Six”, Project Syndicate, 14 October. Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain share a problem. With massive debt, no control over monetary policy, and no leeway for fiscal stimulus, they appear headed for a lost decade of high unemployment and low GDP growth. Such a path would drain the political establishment of legitimacy and prevent a real recovery in Europe. With structural reforms having proved …Read More

The IMF and the legacy of the euro crisis

Schadler, S., (2013), “The IMF and the legacy of the euro crisis”, VoxEU, 15 October. The IMF loans to Greece, Ireland and Portugal are considered controversial by some analysts. This column argues that these loans – granted without having agreed on convincing paths to manageable debt levels – constituted a substantial departure from IMF principles. The situation is costly for Europe and, having now permanently changed the principles guiding large …Read More

Proposal for a Stabilisation Fund for the EMU

Delbecque, B., (2013), “Proposal for a Stabilisation Fund for the EMU”, Centre for European Policy Studies, Working Paper No.385, 14 October. This paper argues that it should be possible to complement Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union with an insurance-type shock absorption mechanism to increase the resilience of member countries to economic shocks and reduce output volatility. Such a mechanism would neither require the establishment of a central authority, nor would …Read More

The 2014 European elections: Why a partisan Commission president would be bad for the EU

Grabbe, H. and Lehne, S., (2013), “The 2014 European elections: Why a partisan Commission president would be bad for the EU”, Centre for European Reform, 14 October. The EU urgently needs measures to improve its democratic legitimacy and the decisions taken in its institutions. But the most prominent proposal touted in Brussels as the solution to the democratic deficit could make the problems worse rather than better. The idea is …Read More

Fiscal Monitor 2013: Taxing Times

IMF, (2013), Fiscal Monitor 2013: Taxing Times, Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund. Persistently high debt ratios in advanced economies and emerging fragilities in the developing world cast clouds on the global fiscal landscape. In advanced economies, with narrowing budget deficits, the average public debt ratio is expected to stabilize in 2013–14—but it will be at a historic peak. At the same time, fiscal vulnerabilities are on the rise in emerging …Read More

Europe’s Choice: Risk Stagnation or Pursue Integration

Shafik, N., (2013), “Europe’s Choice: Risk Stagnation or Pursue Integration”, iMFdirect Blog, 11 October. Europe faces a stark choice: risk stagnation or pursue integration. It can continue to muddle through, and hope that growth in the world economy will eventually pick up enough steam to pull its economy out of the doldrums. Or it can make a decisive push to revitalize its economy and complete the reforms needed to achieve …Read More