Michael Heise, (2018), “The Debt Shackles Return”, Project Syndicate, 15 May Market analysts view the uptick in private lending in most emerging and some developed economies as a sign of higher demand and a precursor of faster growth. But, while this is true in the short run, the relentless rise of overall debt remains among the most serious problems burdening the global economy. Despite years of deleveraging after the 2008 …Read More

Aude Bicquelet-Lock, Helen J. Addison, (2018), “Are discretionary referendums on the EU becoming ‘politically obligatory?’”, LSE, EUROPP, 15 May European governments have increasingly held referendums to decide matters associated with the EU since the first one was held in France in 1972, even though all EU states have representative democratic institutions and referendums entail considerable risk of defeat. This surge in non-obligatory referendum pledges inspired some scholars to suggest that referendums …Read More

Guntram Wolff, (2018), “Germany’s current account surplus and corporate investment”, Bruegel, 9 May Germany’s current account surplus is unusually, and persistently, large. It was above €250 billion euros in 2017, the third consecutive year with a current account surplus above 7.8% of GDP (IMF 2017). To put this into context, of the 193 countries listed in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook between 1999 and 2017 (totalling some 3,570 available observations …Read More

Dan Andrews, Peter Gal, William Witheridge, (2018), “A genie in a bottle: Inflation, globalisation, and competition”, VoxEU, 11 May Markets and commentators are speculating that there may be a sustained pick-up in inflation in the US, after years of subdued price pressures. Along with continued solid US jobs growth and low unemployment, there are tentative signs of higher wage growth and the fiscal stimulus will also boost short-term growth. Global …Read More