OECD/GDP Growth – Second quarter of 2017/28 August 2017 Quarterly growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD area accelerated to 0.7% in the second quarter of 2017, compared with 0.5% in the previous quarter, according to provisional estimates. Among the Major Seven economies, in the second quarter of 2017, GDP growth accelerated strongly in Japan (to 1.0%, compared with 0.4% in the previous quarter) and the United States …Read More
Moss, Daniel, (2017), “Europe Has Recovered Enough to Ease Off the Quantitative Easing”, Bloomberg View, 30 August The European Central Bank is approaching a great opportunity to signal unambiguously its confidence in the region’s economic revival. It would be a shame to miss it. The ECB’s governing council returns from its summer break next week knowing that its current program of quantitative easing expires at year end. Officials have spent months …Read More
Alcidi, Cinzia, (2017), “Fiscal Policy Stabilisation and the Financial Cycle in the Euro Area”, Fellowship Initiative, Discussion Paper 052, European Commission, July This paper examines the impact of the financial cycle on the capacity of the economy to deal with shocks, with a particular focus on fiscal policy in the euro area member states. It starts by measuring national financial cycles and investigating the synchronisation across them as well as their relationship to the medium-term business …Read More
Cecchetti, Stephen, Schoenholtz, Kim, (2017), “The financial crisis, ten years on”, VoxEU, 29 August There is still a notable lack of consensus over when exactly the 2007-09 financial crisis started. This column argues that the crisis began on 9 August 2007, when BNP Paribas announced they were suspending redemptions. In 2007, the US and European financial systems lacked two key shock absorbers: adequate capital to meet falls in asset values, …Read More
Dustmann, Christian, Eichengreen, Barry, Otten, Sebastian, Sapir, André, Tabellini, Guido, Zoega, Gylfi, (2017), “Populism and trust in national and European institutions”, VoxEU, 22 August Recent years have seen a decline in trust in established political institutions and parties and a surge in support for populist movements and policies, not least in Europe where scepticism and, in some places, outright hostility towards the European Union is evident. This column introduces the …Read More
Monokroussos, Platon, (2017), “The determinants of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads- An empirical analysis”, Eurobank, July In this paper we present the results of an empirical study on the determinants of the sovereign bond yield spreads in the euro area before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis. As an additional step, we estimate a valuation model for the 10-year Greek government bond yield differentials, with the …Read More
Benassy-Quere, Agnes, Huther, Michael, Martin, Philippe, Wolff, Guntram, (2017), “Europe must seize this moment of opportunity”, Bruegel, 12 August After years of despondency, there is new and positive momentum in Europe. With the French electing Emmanuel Macron and a broad recovery in the euro area, leaders in Brussels and national capitals have an opportunity to push ahead with long-needed reforms. Simultaneously, the calamities occurring in British and US politics serve …Read More
Gürkaynak, Refet, Weil, Philippe, (2017), “Eurozone economic recovery: Humming along just fine”, VoxEU, 24 August This column presents the first bi-annual report from CEPR’s Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee on the state of the Eurozone business cycle. The main findings are that the Eurozone expansion is continuing slowly, but is creating employment at a rapid pace; the recovery is commensurate with the US recovery once the Eurozone’s double-dip sovereign …Read More
Eurostat/GDP up by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU28/16 August 2017 Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.6% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the second quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2017, GDP grew by 0.5% in both zones. Relevant Posts …Read More
Foglia, Antonio, (2017), “The Post-Crisis Elephant in the Room”, Project Syndicate, 24 August The global financial crisis that began in August 2007 resulted from a massive, unavoidable cognitive mistake on the part of regulators and bankers. It is now ten years later, and yet few are willing to admit this fact, let alone explore appropriate remedies. In fact, the opposite has happened: regulators have piled on ever-more complex rules, and …Read More
