Summers, L. (2014) “Reflections on the new ‘Secular Stagnation hypothesis’“, VoxEU Organisation, 30 Οκτωβρίου.   The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in the Vox eBook “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures” – explains the idea. It argues that a decline in the full-employment real interest rate coupled with low inflation could indefinitely prevent …Read More

Van Treeck, Τ. (2014) “Income and Wealth Distribution in Germany: A Macroeconomic Perspective“, The Institute Blog, 29 Οκτωβρίου.   Household economic surveys, such as the German Socio-Economic Panel, notoriously underestimate the degree of income and wealth inequality at the upper end of the distribution. To combat this, a new approach developed by Thomas Piketty and co-authors analyzes tax return data in an attempt at better measuring top incomes and wealth. …Read More

Ali Abbas, S. M., Blattner, L., De Broeck, M., El-Ganainy, A. & Hu, M. (2014) “A 100-year perspective on sovereign debt composition in 13 advanced economies“, VoxEU Organisation, 27 Οκτωβρίου.   There has been renewed interest in sovereign debt since the Global Crisis, but relatively little attention has been paid to its composition. Sovereign debt can differ in terms of the currency it is denominated in, its maturity, its marketability, …Read More

Hugh, E. (2014) “Does The Secular Stagnation Theory Have Any Sort of Validity?“, A Fistful of Euros: European Opinion Blog, 20 Οκτωβρίου.   In a number of blog-posts (Paul Krugman’s Bicycling Problem, On Bubble Business Bound, The Expectations Fairy) I have examined some of the implications of the theory of secular stagnation. But I haven’t up to now argued why I think the hypothesis that Japan and some parts of …Read More

Reinhart, M. C., Trebesch, C. (2014) “Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future?“, VoxEU Organisation, 21 Οκτωβρίου.   To work towards resolving Europe’s ongoing debt crisis this column looks to the past. From the recent emerging market debt crisis (1980s-2000s) and the interwar episode of the 1920s-1930s we learn that debt write-downs and defaults are able to be postponed but not prevented. Punishment for default is …Read More

Dolan, E. (2014) “Why Should Europe (or Anyone Else) Fear Deflation?“, Economonitor Blog, 20 Οκτωβρίου.   Europe is fearful as it teeters on the brink of deflation. As the chart shows, September consumer prices in the eurozone were just 0.3 percent higher than in the same month a year earlier. That is far below the 2 percent inflation target set by the European Central Bank (ECB). Five countries were already …Read More

Mitchell, B. (2014) “The UK recovery is a false dawn“, Bill Mitchell Blog: Modern Monetary Theory … macroeconomic reality, 18 Οκτωβρίου.   A few weeks ago (October 1, 2014), I wrote in this blog – British economic growth shows that on-going deficits work – that the British Chancellor was overseeing an expanding fiscal deficit and public debt ratio, which despite the rhetoric to the contrary, was supporting growth and helping …Read More

Michaelides, Al., (2014), “Cyprus: from boom to bail-in”, Economic Policy, Vol. 29, Issue 80, pp. 639-689. This is a case study of how a country nearly reached bankruptcy in March 2013, within five years of entering the eurozone. The magnitude of the requested assistance is extremely large relative to GDP (100%) and studying this event provides useful lessons for avoiding such crises in the future. The crisis resulted from a …Read More