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Greek debt sustainability: The devil is in the tails

Consiglio, Andrea, Zenios, Stavros, (2015), “Greek debt sustainability: The devil is in the tails”, Voxeu, 12 August Some experts view Greek debt as sustainable, while others claim it is not sustainable. This column argues that the distinction between tactical and strategic debt sustainability can explain this difference of opinions. Moreover, strategic debt sustainability analysis should account for tail risk. This approach shows that Greek debt is highly unsustainable, but sustainability can be restored …Read More

The Unsettled Greek Revolution

Misik, Robert, (2015), “The Unsettled Greek Revolution”, Social Europe Journal, 12 August While Syriza slowly recovers from the shock of the last few weeks, prime minister Alexis Tsipras is searching for a role. Greece after the referendum, closure of banks and the Brussels diktat. An investigation. Relevant Posts Ruparel, Raoul, (2015), “What will shock Greek referendum mean for the Eurozone and Greece?”, Open Europe blog, 27 June Cowen, T. (2015) “Why …Read More

Greece’s debt burden can and must be lightened within the Euro – There will be no confidence and no growth in Greece without a solution to the debt problem.

von Bogdandy, Armin, Fratzscher, Marcel, Wolff, Guntram B., (2015), “Greece’s debt burden can and must be lightened within the Euro – There will be no confidence and no growth in Greece without a solution to the debt problem.”, Bruegel Institute, 5 August. Perhaps the greatest damage caused by the confrontation with Greece is a general loss of confidence. If we want to get Greece back to growth, people, companies and investors …Read More

Addressing the immediate needs of the Greek banks

De Groen, Willem Pieter, Gros, Daniel, (2015), “Addressing the immediate needs of the Greek banks”, CEPS Commentary, 31 July. Based on a detailed calculation of the recapitalisation requirements of the Greek banks, we find that the sector needs an infusion of capital, but that the level largely depends on the stringency of the capital requirements applied. An expedient quick fix to comply with the minimum capital requirements could be achieved by a bail-in of existing creditors under …Read More

Euro Area Policies Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation With Member Countries

International Monetary Fund, (2015), “Euro Area Policies Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation With Member Countries”, IMF Country Report No. 15/204 , July. KEY ISSUES Context. Real output has expanded for four consecutive quarters, and financial market sentiment has improved markedly. But the recovery is weak and uneven. Inflation has been too low for too long, financial markets are still fragmented, and structural gaps persist: these hinder rebalancing and substantial reductions …Read More

The Challenges of the Greek Crisis

Crawford, Dan, (2015), “The Challenges of the Greek Crisis”, US/ Global Economics, Angry Bear Blog, 31 July. The Greek crisis has abated, but not ended. Representatives of the “troika” of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund returned to Athens for talks with the Greek government about a new bailout. This pause allows an accounting of the many challenges that the events in Greece pose to …Read More

A European Union without Greece would be a much diminished force

Charountaki, Marianna, (2015), “A European Union without Greece would be a much diminished force”, LSE blog, 30 July. What would a failure to resolve the Greek debt crisis mean for the EU as a whole? Marianna Charountaki writes that while the debate over Greece has often focused on narrow economic issues, a Grexit would have far wider implications, undermining the foundations of the integration project and necessitating a complete restructuring of the …Read More

How could the third Greek bailout change without the IMF?

Ruparel, Raoul, (2015), “How could the third Greek bailout change without the IMF?”, Open Europe blog, 31 July. The IMF has pulled further back from joining the third Greek bailout. How much difference might this make to the funding and nature of the bailout? Could it jeopardise it entirely? Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel investigates. Relevant Posts Galbraith, James, (2015), “The IMF’s “Tough Choices” on Greece”, Project Syndicate, 16 June El-Erian, …Read More

Greece: the Paradox of power

Featherstone, Kevin, Papadimitriou, Dimitris, (2015), “Greece: the Paradox of power”, LSE blog, 31 July. Why doesn’t Greece reform? Over the past few years the inability of successive Greek governments to deliver on the demands of international creditors has been a key feature of Greece’s bailout drama. Frustrated observers have pointed to various pathologies of the Greek political system to explain this underperformance: the lack of political will; entrenched sectoral interests …Read More

In Defense of Varoufakis

El-Erian, Mohamed A., (2015), “In Defense of Varoufakis”, Project Syndicate, 29 July. From blaming him for the renewed collapse of the Greek economy to accusing him of illegally plotting Greece’s exit from the eurozone, it has become fashionable to disparage Yanis Varoufakis, the country’s former finance minister. While I have never met or spoken to him, I believe that he is getting a bad rap (and increasingly so). In the process, …Read More