National Bank of Greece/Economic Research Division, (2017), “US and euro area economic data are buoyant, albeit politics (US tax-plan, German coalition talks) remain a source of uncertainty for global assets”, 21 Νovember The euro area economic recovery has shown signs of increasing synchronization, with French and Italian GDP growth both picking up (see graph). Politics continue to cause uncertainty in the euro area, with coalition talks breaking down in Germany, with …Read More
Leverage and limited liability: A toxic cocktail
Jean-Pierre Danthine, (2017), “Leverage and limited liability: A toxic cocktail”, 21 Νovember There is little debate that one of the main causes of the Global Crisis was excessive risk-taking by large international financial institutions. Most observers would also agree that much has been accomplished under Basel III to address the problem. Banks today are required to have more and better equity capital, they are required to prepare ‘recovery and resolution …Read More
ECB, Greece And The Ticking NPL Time-Bomb
Marcello Minenna, (2017), “ECB, Greece And The Ticking NPL Time-Bomb”, Social Europe, 22 November After the ECB regulatory tightening on banks’ non-performing loans (NPLs), announced with the well-known “addendum” to its guidance to banks of October 5, a barrage of anger came from the Italian banks and institutions (even the Minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan and the Bank of Italy took a stand) to defend the threatened stability of …Read More
The Twilight of Angela Merkel
Philippe Legrain, (2017), “The Twilight of Angela Merkel”, Project Syndicate, 21 Νovember While Angela Merkel’s departure may not be imminent, her power is leaching away. With Germany set to turn further inward as it struggles to form a new government – and possibly heads to another federal election next year – a hole has emerged at the heart of Europe, and France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, will not be able to …Read More
Has the Phillips curve disappeared?
Silvia Merler, (2017), “Has the Phillips curve disappeared?”, Bruegel, 21 Νovember The Economist argues that the Phillips curve may be broken for good, showing a chart of average inflation and cyclical unemployment for advanced economies, which has flattened over time (Figure 1). The Economist also refers to a recent paper by three economists at the Philadelphia Fed, arguing that the Phillips curve is not very useful at forecasting inflation: their …Read More
Dear EU: There’s More to Europe Than Paris and Amsterdam
Ferdinando Giugliano, (2017), “Dear EU: There’s More to Europe Than Paris and Amsterdam”, BloombergView, 22 Νovember Τhe European Banking Authority and the European Medical Agency will leave London and relocate, respectively, to Paris and Amsterdam. There was the usual ferocious lobbying, but ultimately the choice was open and transparent; it just wasn’t particularly clever. The EU could have been more strategic about its future. Relevant Posts Dirk Schoenmaker, Nicolas Veron, …Read More
Industrial production down by 0.6% in euro area
Eurostat/Industrial production down by 0.6% in euro area/14 November 2017 In September 2017 compared with August 2017, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.5% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In August 2017, industrial production rose by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU28. Relevant Posts Eurostat/Industrial production up by 0.5% …Read More
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €26.4 bn
Eurostat/Euro area international trade in goods surplus €26.4 bn/15 November 2017 The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in September 2017 was €187.1 billion, an increase of 5.6% compared with September 2016 (€177.2 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €160.7 bn, a rise of 5.1% compared with September 2016 (€152.9 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a …Read More
Rescuing Economics From Neoliberalism
Dani Rodrik, (2017), “Rescuing Economics From Neoliberalism”, Social Europe, 17 November As even its harshest critics concede, neoliberalism is hard to pin down. In broad terms, it denotes a preference for markets over government, economic incentives over social or cultural norms, and private entrepreneurship over collective or community action. It has been used to describe a wide range of phenomena—from Augusto Pinochet to Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, from the …Read More
Basel III and Bank-Lending: Evidence from the United States and Europe
Sami Ben Naceur, Caroline Roulet, (2017), “Basel III and Bank-Lending: Evidence from the United States and Europe”, IMF Working Paper No.17/245, 15 November Using data on commercial banks in the United States and Europe, this paper analyses the impact of the new Basel III capital and liquidity regulation on bank-lending following the 2008 financial crisis. We find that U.S. banks reinforce their risk absorption capacities when expanding their credit activities. …Read More