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EAGLE-FLI: A macroeconomic model of banking and financial interdependence in the euro area

Nikola Bokan, Andrea Gerali, Sandra Gomes, Pascal Jacquinot, Massimiliano Pisani, (2016), “EAGLE-FLI: A macroeconomic model of banking and financial interdependence in the euro area”, ECB Working Paper 1923, June We incorporate financial linkages in EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area (EA) by including financial frictions and country-specific banking sectors. In this new version of the model, termed EAGLE-FLI (Euro Area and GLobal Economy …Read More

The European Central Bank: A Central Bank Operating In A Democratic Void

Ryan, John, (2016), “The European Central Bank: A Central Bank Operating In A Democratic Void”, Social Europe, 24 June The ECB is far more independent than the Federal Reserve, whose legal status is far weaker and which is directly accountable to Congress and the government. The ECB was supposed to be like the German central bank, the Bundesbank. It has, however, failed to emulate the distinctive attributes that made the Bundesbank …Read More

The Long-run Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Economic Growth: Evidence from Quantitative Case Studies

Kleis, Mischa, Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, (2016), “The Long-run Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Economic Growth: Evidence from Quantitative Case Studies“, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 16-047, June We contribute to the literature on the long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on eco- nomic growth by applying a novel method for quantitative case studies. Relying on a qualitative (narrative) definition of fiscal consolidations based on an examination of historical policy documents and using the …Read More

The effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s Asset Purchase Programme

Demertzis, Maria, Wolff, Guntram B., (2016), “The effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s Asset Purchase Programme”, Bruegel, 23 June Central banks resort to quantitative easing when the normal monetary policy tool of low- ering the short-term interest rate is con- strained. This constraint typically arises from the zero-lower bound, ie the reluctance to cut nominal rates below zero. This can result in a real interest rate that, while negative, is …Read More

Underinvestment and unemployment: the double hazard in the Euro Area

Christodoulakis, Nicos, Axioglou, Christos, (2016), “Underinvestment and unemployment: the double hazard in the Euro Area”, Bank of Greece, Αpril An alarming legacy of the austerity programs in the euro area is the vast disinvestment that has taken place over the recent years, and especially so in the peripheral economies. Unless it is quickly reversed, disinvestment not only hinders long-term growth but also undermines the prospects of a gradual reduction of unemployment …Read More

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?

Huidrom, Raju, Kose, Ayhan, Lim, Jamus, Ohnsorge, Franziska, (2016), “Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, June This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions of governments using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model and a large dataset of advanced and developing economies. Our methodology permits us to trace the endogenous relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions while maintaining enough degrees of freedom to …Read More

The day after Brexit: what do we know?

Batsaikhan, Uuriintuya, (2016), “The day after Brexit: what do we know?”, Bruegel, 22 June Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union (December 2009) sets out the procedural requirements for a member state to terminate its membership. Legal withdrawal would mean that EU Treaties and their Protocols would no longer apply, and EU financial programmes would be phased out. If the UK votes to leave the EU on Thursday, the result …Read More

Basic Income Revisited

Robert Skidelsky, (2016), “Basic Income Revisited”, Project Syndicate, 23 June Britain isn’t the only country holding a referendum this month. On June 5, Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected, by 77% to 23%, the proposition that every citizen should be guaranteed an unconditional basic income (UBI). But that lopsided outcome doesn’t mean the issue is going away anytime soon. Relevant Posts Guio, Anne-Catherine, Marlier, Eric, Gordon, David, Fahmy, Eldin, Nandy, Shailen, Pomati, …Read More

Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach

Hope, David, (2016), “Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach”, European Journal of Political Economy, 24 Μay The European sovereign debt crisis wrought major political and economic damage on the European Monetary Union (EMU). This led to a reassessment of the pre-crisis period of economic growth and stability in the EMU, shifting attention to the macroeconomic imbalances that emerged between member states, especially those in …Read More

Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Reforms in Europe: what factors determine investments?

Canton, Erik, Solera, Irune, (2016), “Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Reforms in Europe: what factors determine investments?”, European Commission, Discussion Paper 033, June Greenfield FDI flows into EU countries account for a non-negligible share of total EU FDI. They create new capital assets and additional production capacity which are important elements to support the transition to a stronger European growth path. This project investigates determinants of greenfield FDI flows into …Read More